Andy Holding (STG)
Horse Racing Tips
Andy Holding is held in such high esteem by his peers that he is nicknamed "The pundit's pundit" and Oddschecker users now have access to his valuable insight on a daily basis. Andy is a regular pundit on William Hill Radio where listeners have become accustomed to his encyclopedic knowledge of the form book. Andy also produces his own speed figures and sectional times for every meeting (Flat and Jumps), both in the UK and Ireland.
Staking Plan
Introduction
In the world of betting, a well-structured staking system is not just beneficial; it's essential. It ensures that bettors manage their bankroll effectively, optimising returns while mitigating risks. This article will explore the importance of a staking system and how the Betting Professor's proprietary approach, which incorporates a fractional Kelly criterion, historical performance, bankroll considerations, and a fixed win element, stands out in the market.
The Basics of a staking system
A staking system refers to the method by which a bettor determines the amount to wager on a given bet. Unlike flat betting, where the same amount is risked on each position, a staking system adjusts the stake size based on various factors. This dynamic approach can be crucial in managing a betting portfolio and protecting against significant losses.
Key components of our staking system
Fractional Kelly Criterion
The Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets. By using a fractional Kelly, The Betting Professor adjusts the stake to be a percentage of the optimal bet size, balancing the potential for growth with risk management. This approach helps in reducing volatility and protecting the bankroll from large drawdowns.
The essential part of Kelly is comparing your probability to the market’s probability. The more you are out of line with the market, theoretically, the more you should wager, however 100% Kelly revolves around knowing the exact probabilities for both which is impossible in sport.
Historical Relative Success
The Betting Professor's system takes into account the historical performance in the underlying market. By analysing past results, we can make more informed decisions on stake sizes, ensuring that more successful markets receive slightly higher stakes, while less successful ones are bet with caution.
Bankroll Size and Protection
Bankroll management is the cornerstone of any successful betting strategy. The Betting Professor's system will assume a non-compounding bankroll, however we would recommend that your bankroll is rebased every 750 bets ensuring that no single bet can significantly harm the overall capital. This protection is vital for long-term success. Compounding more regularly can increase returns but make the, inevitable, swings more costly.
Element of Fixed Win
Incorporating a fixed win element means setting a target win amount and adjusting the stake accordingly. This helps in maintaining consistent returns and can be particularly useful when betting on events with varying odds.
Practical Application: A Year in Review
Over the last 3,000 trades — a typical year's worth of activity — The Betting Professor's staking system has demonstrated consistent results. The stakes have ranged between 1.1% and 7.6% of the betting bankroll, with a mean stake of 3.1% and a median stake of 2.8%. These figures highlight the system's flexibility and responsiveness to market conditions and historical performance.
The odds on our selections typically vary between 1.5 and 5.0, allowing for a balanced risk-reward ratio. This range of odds ensures that our bets are not overly risky, while still providing opportunities for substantial returns.
Conclusion
A sophisticated staking system is indispensable for anyone serious about betting. By incorporating a fractional Kelly criterion, historical performance data, and a strong focus on bankroll management, The Betting Professor's proprietary system offers a balanced approach to risk and reward. This careful calibration ensures that our clients can enjoy steady growth while minimising the potential for significant losses. As the data from the last 3,000 trades shows, a disciplined and well-structured staking strategy can make all the difference in achieving long-term success.